fugu62's Xanga

Would you (or did you) go to your high school reunion? Why or why not?

Sun, 02 Aug 2009 20:51:32 GMT

The only way I'd go to a high school reunion is with a flame thrower.

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Odd advice from the President?

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 00:06:35 GMT

Earlier this afternoon President Obama made a show to celebrate the passage of the Cap-and Trade bill in the House Friday. For those of you who do not know, this is plan to issue credits for CO2 production which can be traded among companies as a way to limit greenhouse gases which some believe are responsible for climate change. (for an opposing view watch this.) Anyway, the President extols California as a good example of how we should do things:

The problem is California is in the worst financial crisis of any state, even worse than Michigan, Because of high taxes and excessive regulations (like those for climate change) businesses are leaving the state in droves (along with jobs) so actual tax collections can't pay for everything they want to do.

The bottom line is that the things California has done which have cost them jobs and destroyed their economy are now what the President wants us to do in the rest of the country. Fortunately for me I invest in a fund which invests in Asian companies, which will pick up the jobs which we are giving up with this new law.

Also, as an aside, the President says that he wants judges to be "empathetic" but, from the tone of his statement on the sentencing this morning, he doesn't seem to mind that the judge had no empathy for Bernie Madoff, the swindler.

Soulmates? Callings? Are they part of God's plans?

Thu, 25 Jun 2009 11:41:37 GMT

Since I was a little boy in Sunday School at Wesley UMC I’ve been told that God watches over my every move. From time to time I’ve also been told that He has a plan for my life. While I still believe the former I’ve come to doubt the latter. This has been at the front of mind for me for a bit of time now. Just after graduation last month I had a conversation with a young lady of my acquaintance. She had just broken up with a boy and was lamenting not having found her “soulmate.” I think I may have undermined her faith when I mentioned that I do not think the idea of a soulmate is Biblical. I know there are many Christian teachers on TV and radio saying that God has one special person out there for you but I’m hard pressed to find that in the Bible. I know the Gospel talks about “two becoming one” but I do not think that is a reference to a predetermined pairing by God. In one of his letters Paul talks of “becoming one flesh” with a prostitute as defilement. Also, in the Gospel According to Matthew Jesus, when asked about the resurrection, tells us that people will not be married in the afterlife so the thought of an eternal soulmate seems wrong. The first time I came across the term it was reading new-age gurus not the Bible. I did not want to rub in the point with my young friend but I have known people who have stayed in abusive relationships or left (and destroyed) their family because they had “found their soulmate.” Am I wrong on this idea? Otherwise I need to start looking.

The other thing that has me wondering about God’s plans for my life is wondering if I have a calling. I know some people who are truly called to their service but I do not know if God would like me to do something more than what He wants everyone to do (Love Him and our neighbors) Before I went to college, some six years ago, I was obsessed with this idea that God had a calling for me and I went through a long period of prayer, study and even fasting to try to find out what that was. I went back to school knowing that was not God’s will but figuring He would know where to find me if He wanted to reveal it to me. Now that I’ve completed college and I’m looking for something to do for the rest of my life I’m wondering again if I have a calling. Does everyone have a special calling from God?

I’ve always been fascinated with this idea of God’s Providence, this idea that even though we have free will God is in control of everything. I wonder if I have a choice in God’s plans for my life/

Some thoughts on graduating

Wed, 10 Jun 2009 01:04:54 GMT

Graduating has found me at an unusual loss of words. I wold like to write something profound but it has been something less than inspiring. This time around has been more like a war of attrition meaning I lost all of the battles but still wore down the opponent, thus winning the war. One thing I think I learned is that studying success can only take things so far. Last weekend I watched a very long (three hours) interview of political and educational gadfly William Ayers. It is scary that Obama praised the man as an advisor for educational programs since he advocates the type of educational malpractice I was the victim of when I was 10. He did the common academic trick of looking for anecdotal evidence and cherry picking examples which confirm his conclusions. So he continues to push a style which has a very bad history because there are a few examples that were not as terrible.

While not quite as blatant as Ayers cherry picking, the business school relies on studying “Best of Breed” businesses and the case studies we read stressed best practices. This misses at least half of the action in the world. I started out in the engineering program and the biggest difference they have with the business program is the stress of failure analysis as part of an engineering education, They spend a good deal of their time analyzing why some things do not work. I think that a drive to study best practices is of limited value if those practices are just layered on top of a bunch of worst practices. What was missing from the business curriculum was how to identify and root out bad practices which may counteract the best ones. I am afraid that my fellow graduates will be frustrated when they get out into the real world.

On a lighter note; all that time I spent in the cafe in the library on the downtown campus paid off...I graduated Magna Cum Latte :)

Which caused which?

Wed, 29 Apr 2009 23:34:11 GMT

Your Birthday's Wisdom is Individuality

Life has required you to go your own way and do your own thing.
You've been taught to rely on yourself. You don't feel comfortable relying on others.

You are highly motivated and aggressive. You have no problem getting things done and getting what you want.
You feel like you have to look out for yourself, because no one else is.

What's Your Birthday's Wisdom?

Planning for the future, part 2 - Risk and uncertainty

Mon, 27 Apr 2009 13:31:28 GMT

A few moths ago I saw former GE CEO and business guru Jack Welsh on television and he was talking about how corporate managers lacked “visibility”. He did not mean this in the publicity sense of the word but rather that they lacked any ability to make accurate projections of future business activity. When executives of big companies get into a situation like that they realize that the risks involved in any decisions they make increase and they become very conservative with the company’s money, not making any big investments and certainly not long-term ones. You should take a lesson from that if you are looking to save for some future event like buying a house or retirement. Planning for the future is important but right now the lack of visibility makes doing it more difficult but not doing it is more dangerous.

When people start saving money and seriously investing they tend to look for what type of return they can get for their money. The average person tends to either greatly underestimate the amount of risk involved in their decisions or go too far in the other direction. Risk is simply the probably that you will make the wrong decision. It grows as you have less information to make a good decision. Right now the government has created a cloud of uncertainty, not only for business people, but for anyone planning for their future. You may have been very mad about the whole issue of AIG paying outrageous bonuses to its executives last month but the issue that should worry you was congresses willingness to raise taxes to try to take them away. We in the United States are now in a situation where the majority of people do not have to pay income taxes (they still have to pay other taxes like sales and FICA taxes). I have mentioned before that one of the biggest dangers to a democracy is that the majority will think that they can vote for the government to give them benefits and have the minority pay for those benefits. The balance has now tipped to the point that the majority in the country can demand benefits from the government which they will not have to pay for. This promises to spread from the government not only taking people’s incomes but also their savings too. It is not a big stretch for a politician to whip the people up into a frenzy about rich people making too much money to saying that they just have "too much" also. While I still think it is prudent to save money I think you should consider the possibility that the government will come up with new ways to tax savings in order to pay for the massive debt it is racking up. The uncertainty of this possibility is now in play in a way it has not been before when the majority paid income taxes.

So, what should you do as far as saving and investing? First, keep doing it (or start if you haven’t). Everyone should have enough savings to cover at least six months of expenses and bills in case of an emergency. This emergency fund should be kept in a safe institution like an FDIC insured bank but, considering the changes I have mentioned, you should probably consider keeping at least a month’s worth in cash in a strong box in your home in case the government decides to limit your access to your funds or even starts to confiscate bank deposits. For longer term savings and investments I recommend staying flexible meaning do not make any long term commitments with your money. I would advise not putting any money into tax deferred plans like IRAs or 529 savings plans till the government shows exactly how socialist it will become. The government is in the process of changing a lot of the rules when it comes to money; making good choices based on today’s reality may hurt you in the future when realities change. The main exception to this advice is if you have a 401(k) plan where you work and your employer contributes to it you have to participate because otherwise it is like turning down a pay raise.

Last fall when I wrote to not panic when the markets collapsed I said there would be a time to start investing in the stock market and I said it would probably be within about six months. I was right and wrong on that. I believe that the American people will ultimately do the right thing and not allow confiscation of their savings and that American businesses will do well again. But while I believe that I am not certain of it; which leads me to advise staying flexible with your plans, not making any major decisions until the government and the economy provide you more visibility.

Hey look, they wrote a song about WVU

Mon, 27 Apr 2009 11:36:15 GMT

Unfortunately this is too accurate (but still kind of funny)

Which fairy tale character do you think you are most like and why?

Fri, 24 Apr 2009 20:47:27 GMT

Shrek
(The resemblance is uncanny)

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I stood out in the wind this morning and I felt...

Mon, 20 Apr 2009 12:11:34 GMT

Alive

Planning for the Future, Part 1: Worst Case Scenario

Fri, 17 Apr 2009 14:45:08 GMT

What would you do if all the modern infrastructure which held the system together stopped? Most people do not really think about how fragile these things are. The water, power, transportation systems which heat, cool, keep us informed and fed are vulnerable to attack or simple breakdown. A while ago I wrote that we are not likely to go back to the standard of living of the Great Depression; if I were being more accurate I would have said if we went back to that point it would be a temporary stop on the way to a pre-industrial period like the Medieval Era. This is not new thinking, as long as I can remember, reaching back to when I was a Boy Scout in the 1970's and my troop leader would tell us we needed to build our outdoor skills for when gas prices went so high that nobody could afford to drive and all food shipments would stop, I've know people who worried about this. Collectively, people who fret about this type of societal collapse can be called "Survivalists" because they plan to survive a worst case scenario.

Last weekend I watched a talk by Michael Panzer about his book When Giants Fall: An Economic Roadmap to the End of the American Era. (Watch it here) He talks about a slow-motion collapse, more a deterioration of the system. I'm pretty sure that I could not survive a quick, devastating end to the systems which support modern life but a gradual decline would be another thing. Either way if you believe that these bad things will happen there are certain steps you should take. Some are actually easy things which you should do anyway.

Make friends with your neighbors - When you're cut off from the rest of the world the people who live next to you can be your best friends (or your worst enemy)
As Neo said in the Matrix, "Guns, lots of guns" - both for self-defense and hunting for food
Plant a garden - vegetable, not flowers

Some measures take more effort:

Live in a survivable location - Think of where people lived before the rise of machines: Small cities located on waterways, near productive agricultural land, in a temperate climate. When nation states fall, city states will rise so look for someplace that already has strong local leadership.
Build a self-reliant skill set - Learn how to provide for your own basic needs (Go camping!)
Own silver and gold - When a nation ends so does its money

I do not want to scare anyone but it is prudent to consider the worst that can happen. While I think that most people underestimate how vulnerable our modern systems are, I also think people who worry about them underestimate their durability. I think that a total collapse is improbable but a good risk manager has to plan for any possibility. My upcoming major life change which will be happening next month has me thinking about the future and how I should go forward. My next few posts on the subject of planning will deal with more likely events.